Mojave, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

232
FXUS65 KVEF 170804
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
105 AM PDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A storm system moving into the region will bring
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into Friday along
with gusty winds and cooler temperatures. High pressure will then
build over the weekend with drier conditions along with a warming
trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Friday Night.

Interesting weather pattern expected over the next 36 to 48 hours as
a cold, late season closed low over the Pacific Northwest dives
south through the eastern Great Basin today and into northern
Arizona by Friday afternoon. The closed low that had been sitting
just off the southern California coast will gradually merge with the
northern low and bring unsettled weather to our area through Friday.
So far, we have been seeing gusty west winds over the western Mojave
Desert where wind gusts between 35 and 45 mph have been occurring.
These winds are expected to continue into Friday morning where a
Wind Advisory is already in place. As the Pacific NW low drops
south, it will drag a cold front through the CWA today with gusty
northwest winds behind the front. Wind Advisories have been issued
for Esmeralda and central Nye counties starting at 11 am this
morning and continuing until 11 pm Friday. It looks like the
strongest winds for those areas will be this afternoon into this
evening with a decrease in winds overnight and then picking up again
late Friday morning with wind gusts to around 40 mph.

As the cold front continues to push south, showers and thunderstorms
will develop along and ahead of the front as it pushes into southern
portions of the forecast area early this evening. Strong lift and
instability with CAPE values around 300-500 J/kg (which is pretty
good for this time of year) and LI`s around -2/-4 deg C will help
fuel any storms. Due to the lack of surface moisture, the greatest
threat from any of these storms will be gusty outflow winds and
seeing wind gusts over 50 mph is certainly in the realm of
possibility, especially in Clark, Mohave, and northern Mohave
counties. Overall, rainfall amounts will remain generally light with
only a few hundredths expected with any of these showers/storms.
Some of these storms could also produce some small hail as the
freezing level is expected to be around 7500-8000 feet when storms
develop.

By Friday morning, the upper low will continue to push south through
Utah and eventually into northern Arizona by Friday afternoon. Most
of the energy will remain just east of our area, but some wrap
around showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over Lincoln
and Mohave counties and possibly as far east as Clark and eastern
San Bernardino Counties where coverage is expected to be more
isolated. Temperatures will be near normal today, but drop to around
10-15 degrees below normal Friday with places like Las Vegas
struggling to get out of the 60s.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.

The closed low will shift east Saturday, with the area remaining
under northerly flow aloft behind the exiting system. This will pump
dry air into the region and put an end to any precipitation chances.
The pressure gradient will decrease through the day, so breezy north
winds will be strongest in the morning with gusts around 20 MPH that
will drop off areawide by the afternoon. Weak height rises will
result in warmer temperatures compared to Friday, with high
temperature rising to near or slightly below normal.

The weather pattern will remain progressive by generally low impact
Sunday through early next week. Occasional shortwaves will move
through the mean flow but they will be weak and have little to no
moisture to work with so precipitation will be limited to none
Sunday through Wednesday. Occasionally increases in winds is
possible as each piece of energy moves through, but none should be
strong enough to result in strong, impactful winds. Temperatures
will climb back above normal on Sunday with high temperatures
climbing to 10-15 degrees above normal in many locations.
Temperatures will then remain around that same level through much of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...Breezy south-southwest winds continue overnight, becoming
gusty again by late morning or early afternoon. In the late
afternoon, precipitation concerns grow as a line of showers and
isolated storms forms along a cold front and sags south. Best
chances in the Vegas Valley are between 01z and 05z. Lightning,
light to moderate rain, and erratic winds are the main concerns.
There is a 30-40% chance of a thunderstorm and associated outflow
gusts in excess of 30 knots, with some models showing as high as 50
knots. CIGs could drop as low as 8kft if convection moves over the
terminal. Precipitation chances quickly wane between 05z and 07z,
resulting in rapid improvement in sky conditions. Lighter westerly
or northwesterly winds overnight.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Southerly to westerly
breezes continue across most of the area tonight and Thursday. The
exception to this is BIH, where northerly breezes prevail through
the TAF period. Gusts 20-30 knots in most locations, with stronger
winds at DAG. Thursday afternoon, a line of showers and isolated
storms will develop along a cold front from southwest Utah to the
Sierra. Lightning, light to moderate rain, and erratic winds are the
main concerns. Impacts at BIH possible from 21z-03z and in the Las
Vegas Valley from 00z-05z. Behind the front, sky conditions will
rapidly improve and winds transition to a more westerly or
northwesterly direction.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

SHORT TERM...Gorelow
LONG TERM...Nickerson
AVIATION...Woods

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